Topic: GENERAL LOGIC
Hempel's Raven Paradox: A Lacuna in the Standard Bayesian Solution
by Peter B. M. Vranas
According to Hempel's paradox, evidence (E) that an object is a nonblack nonraven confirms the hypothesis (H) that every raven is black. According to the standard Bayesian solution, E does confirm H but only to a minute degree. This solution relies on the almost never explicitly defended assumption that the probability of H should not be affected by evidence that an object is nonblack. I argue that this assumption is implausible, and I propose a way out for Bayesians.
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Posted by Tony Marmo
at 03:14 BST
