Now Playing: COUNTERFACTUALS WEEK
Topic: Counterfactuals
Counterfactuals and Policy Analysis in Structural Models
By Alexander Balke & Judea Pearl
Evaluation of counterfactual queries (e.g. If A were true, would C have been true?) is important to fault diagnosis, planning, determination of liability, and policy analysis. We present a method for evaluating counterfactuals when the underlying causal model is represented by structural models { a nonlinear generalization of the simultaneous equations models commonly used in econometrics and social sciences. This new method provides a coherent means for evaluating policies involving the control of variables which, prior to enacting the policy were inuenced by other variables in the system.
Posted by Tony Marmo
at 00:01 GMT
Updated: Sunday, 4 December 2005 01:08 GMT
